The Academy's YouTube Gamble: Trading OSCARS Revenue for Reach

So many thoughts going through my head as I read the news. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced today that the Oscars will leave ABC after fifty years and move to YouTube beginning in 2029. My opinion is deeper and more detailed than what I summarize here, given my long history with AMPAS and how much I genuinely cared for the institution, its global footprint, and the integrity of its brand. I applaud the intent to reach a global audience. But I cannot help but think this move is shortsighted.

I know this territory intimately. For nineteen years at Disney Media Distribution, I was instrumental in global distribution strategy for content including the Oscars, helping drive an 8%+ compound annual growth rate in international licensing revenue for the ceremony from 2009 to 2019. I then served as Senior Vice President of Global Business Development at the Academy, where I played a key role in sustaining international distribution partnerships and developing new revenue opportunities—including closing an enhanced and heightened value $28 million five-year partnership deal with Rolex, and creating the Oscars' first AMPAS-produced official post-show, to bookend the popular red carpet pre-show.

The numbers are significant. ABC has been paying approximately $120 million annually for the domestic rights, production support, and institutional partnership. International licensing, historically managed through Disney, added another $20 million-plus annually. That's a $140 million revenue engine that has funded the Academy's operations, preservation work, educational initiatives, and the Academy Museum.

YouTube's financial terms were not disclosed. That silence speaks volumes.

The Math Problem

I am not a broadcast traditionalist. Even the NFL has put games on Prime and other streaming platforms. The migration to digital distribution is real, and there are smart ways to navigate it. But the economics have to make sense.

Unless YouTube's CPM model grows by leaps and bounds in the next few years—which would be uncharacteristic—I do not see how the Academy recoups anywhere close to the annual revenue from the Oscars it is accustomed to and would need going forward.

YouTube's ad rates on free content are a fraction of what broadcast primetime commands. Even with two billion potential global eyeballs, the monetization per viewer is dramatically lower.

Even if the market really shifts by 2029, I do not see how that revenue shortfall gap gets closed—or how the Academy will be whole going forward without some other significant revenue stream from somewhere. If I am missing something here, please, someone speak up!

Yes, Oscar ratings have declined. The 2024 ceremony drew roughly 20 million viewers—down from 55 million at the 1998 peak. But chasing eyeballs on a platform that cannot monetize them at comparable rates is not a solution. It's a retreat dressed up as progress.

What Gets Lost

The international media partnerships were never just about guaranteed license fees. They were the gateway to local relevance and engagement in each market. Local broadcasters in territories around the world had skin in the game. They promoted the Oscars. They created local programming around it. They made the ceremony culturally relevant in their territory. That collaborative ecosystem was relationship infrastructure built over decades.

That collaboration dies with this deal.

Sure, media outlets will still cover the proceedings. But there is a profound difference between coverage and partnership. The Academy is trading invested local partners for passive global viewers—and assuming the math works out. It won't.

The Trajectory

Here is what happens when the revenue doesn't materialize at historical levels: the cuts start. First it's staff. Then programming. Then member services get trimmed. The Governors Awards get scaled back. The educational initiatives shrink. The preservation work slows.

In ten years, you risk having a museum that happens to throw an annual party people still watch out of habit, trading on the fumes of what it once was. The Academy will carry a legacy of greatness, but may no longer be great.

I hope I am wrong. But the people who built that $140 million annual revenue machine are watching from the outside now, and the math doesn't lie.

Todd Barasch is an entertainment industry executive and founder of Mensch Enterprises LLC. He previously served as Senior Vice President of Global Business Development at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences (2020-2022) and Vice President, Product & Portfolio Management, Global Distribution Operations & Strategy at Disney Media Distribution (2000-2020). He currently co-leads Summit International Pictures and serves as a strategic advisor to producers, distributors, and international media companies.